Tuesday, September 09, 2008

The Limits to Growth - so how did it work out so far?

Actually, pretty damn accurate.
Scientists took the models and predictions that were made 30 years ago and fitted it to what happened. When you strip away all the bullshit and hype and misrepresentations, the Club of Rome authors were right on the money.

20:20 hindsight.

ABSTRACT

In 1972, the Club of Rome's infamous report "The Limits to Growth" (Meadows et al., 1972) presented some challenging scenarios for global sustainability, based on a system dynamics computer model to simulate the interactions of five global economic subsystems, namely: population, food production, industrial production, pollution, and consumption of non-renewable natural resources. Contrary to popular belief, The Limits to Growth scenarios by the team of analysts from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology did not predict world collapse by the end of the 20th Century. This paper focuses on a comparison of recently collated historical data for 1970 - 2000 with scenarios presented in the Limits to Growth. The analysis shows that 30 years of historical data compares favorably with key features of a business-as-usual scenario called the "standard run" scenario, which results in collapse of the global system midway through the 21st Century. The data does not compare well with other scenarios involving comprehensive use of technology or stabilizing behaviour and policies. The results indicate the particular importance of understanding and controlling global pollution.

Source (pdf)



The recommendations of the Limits to Growth report were not followed, because of a sustained, very aggressive campaign of hype and hysteria followed it's publication to discredit it.
As long as we have people like Bjørn Lomborg and Michael Crichton who are willing to distort the facts and issues to suit their own world views and (political) agendas, and as long as there are enough people willing to put their heads in the sand, and there are enough politicians willing to think short-term gain only and play along with the denial, this will go on.

The last paragraph of the study conclusion reads:
In addition to the data-based corroboration presented here, contemporary issues such as peak oil, climate change, and food and water security resonate strongly with the feedback dynamics of "overshoot and collapse" displayed in the LtG "standard run" scenario (and similar scenarios). Unless the LtG is invalidated by other scientific research, the data comparison presented here lends support to the conclusion from the LtG that the global system is on an unsustainable trajectory unless there is substantial and rapid reduction in consumptive behaviour, in combination with technological progress.


Well, there you have it.
What do you think of the odds?
Think we'll act in time?
Al Gore and Dr. James Hansen of NASA think so. Hope so.
I'm less optimistic.

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